The first duty of intelligent men

A special, post-Christmas message:

 

“When I read about the evils of drinking, I gave up reading.”

-       Henny Youngman.

 

It is customary for asset managers to begin the year with a list of forecasts and predictions for the year ahead. Customary but a bit of a waste of both writer’s and reader’s time, unless the financiers in question have uniquely stumbled upon some formula for perfect foresight. City and Wall Street folk being what they are (amongst other things: simplistic, backward-looking and herd-following drones), such forecasts are as likely to provide value for contrarian purposes as for offering any kind of amazing insight into the otherwise unfathomable magic of the markets.

The US S&P 500 Index currently stands at roughly 1,275. Citigroup (bailed out bank), Goldman Sachs (bailed out bank), Bank of America (bailed out bank) and JP Morgan all, according to the FT’s Lex column, have targets between 1,400 and 1,450 for the S&P 500 this year. So far, so predictable. It may actually be compulsory for Wall Street banks to be bullish about the market. It may have been a condition for getting bailed out in the first instance. Robert Shiller, author of ‘Irrational Exuberance’ and Yale economics professor, also has a target – in his case, of 1,430, bang in line with the rest of Wall Street. The difference, as Lex points out, is that Shiller’s target is for the year 2020.

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Comments

[shopping reviews]

Looking forward to getting back into blogging and what better way than doing this challenge to raise awareness. Thank you for hosting!